Quantum Matters: What World (Dis) Order Means For Quantum Technologies
Guest Post by Karina Robinson
The National People’s Congress (NPC) session in Beijing last month allocated an 8.3% increase year on year for Chinese technology spend. In the US, technology spending is due to increase by 6.1% in 2025 to $2.7 trillion, according to Forrester.
Before the upheaval brought about by the new US administration, forecasts from firms like Forrester’s were relied upon, while those from the NPC and any China institute were deemed untrustworthy, subject to government manipulation.
In April 2025, with the Trump government well ensconced and Elon Musk in charge of taking a “chainsaw” to government spending through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), forecasting for the US is inevitably less accurate than for China.
This is only one example of the global economic earthquake caused by the US government, with daily after-shocks as tariffs are applied/suspended/modified. With federal spending cuts ranging from a pre-election goal of $2 trillion to a recent claim of $150 billion in 2026, there is no point in putting numbers to how quantum technologies will be affected by the new world disorder.
Rather, a focus on four areas yields some insights.
Investment
Markets are in risk-off mode. This means raising capital for the quantum industry – be it venture or an IPO – is already much more difficult.
If venture firms cannot realise assets (be it any form of Deep Tech, not just quantum), they will hold off from supporting financing rounds. There may well be a cash shortfall, not least for firms that were counting on a public market listing through a SPAC or IPO.
Additionally, even if there is a bounce in markets, not least due to existing large pools of investible capital, it is doubtful those funds will go into a sector as risky as quantum.
Of note is Jensen Huang’s about-turn on the value of quantum after his dismissive comments in January lead to a sell-off in quoted quantum companies. The CEO of Nvidia has now allocated funds to the industry and set up a quantum hub in Boston with Quantinuum, Harvard and others.
The larger Tech companies like Nvidia, Google and Microsoft should see their comparative power rise. They may not have the best research or results, but the firms that do are smaller and more quantum-only focused, thus in a more precarious position, with fewer financing options.
Expect Big Tech to flex its financial muscles with M&A.
Tariffs and the supply chain
Tariff turmoil will skewer the global supply chain. It is not apparent yet.
The geographic spread of the supply chain looks likely to lead to delays in investigations and Proofs of Concept (POC) – some of the firms are not 100% sure about where all their components come from, plus there are limited numbers of suppliers for many of the components in the quantum supply chain.
One UK firm points out that their primary competitors are in Asia, thus giving them an advantage in dealing with the US due to the relatively lower 10% UK tariffs. Momentary advantages should not be counted upon to last.
The tariffs turmoil is also adding major uncertainty to exports. The head of supply chain at another UK firm notes that exporting a QC is a sequence of deployments where some of those part shipments are not directly ‘quantum computers’ in their own right, such as fridges, and could be subject to higher tariffs.
This is not only to and from the US, but also other nations, including allied ones, as their reaction to tariffs becomes another factor in the business equation.
Expect cost increases and clogged up business decisions.
International Collaboration
The picture is mixed when it comes to international collaborations. Over the last five years troublesome export controls became more prevalent, but they were aimed at specific countries like China and Iran. Now there is a growing lack of trust spreading to collaborations involving the American government, with knock on effects for American firms, which will lead to delays and upheaval.
On the other hand, in Europe and the UK there is a growing awareness of the requirement to cooperate more within Europe, and with democracies like South Korea and Japan.
Expect more cooperation announcements, especially in defence.
Defence
The increased risk of wars on several fronts is, unfortunately, a bright spot for quantum technologies globally, given that almost all applications are dual use. In the words of a general in a private meeting, “You need to digitalise your kill chain.” All Deep Tech will receive more funds from defence, while Western society’s private funding of the industry is well en route to overcoming ESG impediments.
Defence in the US
The picture is mixed for the US. On the one hand, on April 11th President Donald Trump announced that the upcoming fiscal 2026 defence budget would be around $1 trillion, a major boost from $892 billion for fiscal 2026.
However, at a time of major cost-cutting in government, and daily policy flip flops, this number may well change, while the many firings of career defence and security officials are bound to inject delays in decision-making, as well as uninformed choices in weapons commissioning.
Additionally, as the US government slashes Research and Development, universities are seeing funding cuts and a lack of new job openings. In a recent survey by scientific bible Nature magazine, 75% of the respondents said they were considering leaving the US and were looking for jobs in Europe and Canada as preferred destinations.
Anecdotally, one quantum firm with operations in the US and the UK was forced to locate a new branch in the latter rather than the former. The talent available in Europe and the UK was not willing to move to the US; the talent available in the US was willing to move to the UK. This marks a major reversal from decades of the US’s number one spot in attracting talent.
Expect the battle for skills in Deep Tech to skew towards countries other than the US.
Defence in Europe and the UK
The picture in defence for the UK and Europe is rosier, if not entirely so.
The negative is dependence on US military and other technology. But the positives are the much-delayed recognition that Article 5 of NATO, which states that an attack on one is an attack on all, is now defunct as far as the US is concerned, and thus the UK and Europe must step up their military spending.
Action has been taken relatively quickly, with the European Union (EU) coming up with a €150 billion joint borrowing fund. This could mobilise up to €800 billion in defence spending, according to the Commission. The stricture that projects must come from a minimum of two-country cooperation is set to boost inter-European projects.
The UK is currently not eligible but is likely to sign a security pact with the EU that will lead to its admittance. In the meantime, it is stepping up its own military spending as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s government pivots to creating growth and jobs through defence and technology, and overall moves closer to Europe.
In fact, what looked like the insoluble problem of Europe and the UK’s paltry growth may well find its solution is an increased emphasis on the defence sector. Productivity in the UK aerospace, defence, security and space sector is 42% higher than the UK average, according to ADS Group, the trade association.
Expect higher growth in Europe and the UK.
Karina Robinson is Founder of The City Quantum & AI Summit and Senior Advisor to Multiverse Computing. The opinions expressed are her own.