TQI’s 2025 Predictions For The Quantum Industry

What will 2025 hold for the quantum community?

That’s not just a tough question; it’s an impossible one.

But that has never stopped us from taking a swing in the dark at what we should expect to see happen in quantum over the next 12 months or so. The following is based on some educated guesses, some trend following — and some wild speculation — at headlines you might see in The Quantum Insider in 2025.

Here’s our list of predictions:

Progress in Logical Qubits Escalates 

2024 marked a dramatic advance in logical qubit research, led mainly by scientific teams from Microsoft, Atom Computing and Quantinuum, but certainly that progress includes many research teams from other research institutions and companies. The number of physical qubits that are required to create logical qubits is dropping, while the number of entangled qubits is increasing. There is no reason to think that this will pause and, because of the centrality of error correction in the achievement of practical quantum computing, there is certainly every reason to believe that organizations will focus those research efforts on logical qubit work. While challenges remain – and many of those challenges are significant – logical breakthroughs are not out of the realm of possibility during 2025.

Another Round of Quantum IPOs

There has probably never been a more favorable time to test the public market waters in quantum in recent years. Why? We break this into several factors that we think are relevant:

• Technological Maturity — Although there is significant work to do, quantum has vaulted some of the initial technological hurdles and appears positioned to vault the rest in time.
• Roadmap Risk Match — Most roadmaps offer commercial advantage within the timeline that would be acceptable to investors with moderate to high risk appetite.
• Increasing Awareness — Thanks in large part to the technological advances this year by quantum heavyweights, like Google, Microsoft and Quantinuum, you may now be able to use the term, “quantum computing,” without the average person looking at you like you have antlers growing out of your head.
• AI As Pathfinder — Artificial intelligence has performed an important task for deep-tech companies, such as quantum techs. Because of the success of AI investments, the average investor is beginning to see the lucrative potential of frontier technologies, even if they don’t fully understand them. With valuations rising for AI companies and quantum edging closer and closer to becoming full-fledged partners (See below), it’s easy to see that the investment shine of AI may partially light up new quantum companies going public. In other words, quantum may be a few years from its ChatGPT moment, but it’s ready for its ChatGPT investment moment.
• Quantum Stock Interest — Publicly listed quantum computing companies received a big boost at the end of 2024. That frenzy may not have been missed by the broader investment community.

Therefore, it’s likely that we will see a few companies pursue initial public offering (IPO), or special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) approaches to trade on the public markets.

Quantum Investment Benefits From AI Fatigue

This is somewhat related to the prediction above, but deserves its own shout-out. For the past two years, artificial intelligence companies have been the focus of the vast majority of funding and investment. That’s probably a huge understatement. Two important factors point toward quantum technology as an heir to this investment trend. First, AI has created a model where deep technologies move from research into the real world, mainly due to intrinsic market demand. (Think ChatGPT’s mass appeal.) Quantum could go through this awareness-raising, investment-attracting moment, too, if it can deliver practical advantage. Second: This mass appeal of AI has also led to extremely high valuations, this may make the higher risk of investing in quantum more appetizing for investors. 

Some Quantum Bubble Pops

We’ll add this one… since we’re discussing the quantum investment environment. As mentioned, the valuation of some quantum companies that are trading on public stock markets have skyrocketed over the last quarter. Some of those companies may deserve those valuations, if we are pricing in future potential value. Some may actually be worth more than these valuations suggest. But other companies are completely over-valued. We expect in the next 12 months that Mr. and Ms. Market will work their magic and value these companies more accurately. It’s probably a safe bet that several quantum firms that are not publicly listed will struggle to find investors at the valuations they desire. That may shorten the runway for those companies and lead to some spectacular bubble popping through both public and private markets in 2025.

Wildcard Quantum Advantage

This is a controversial one. On paper, the industry is years away from creating a quantum computer that can undertake a task faster or more efficiently than their classical or classical computing or supercomputing counterparts. But, in 2024, we see scientists becoming more creative in a wide range of approaches and methods — both in software and hardware development — that could, conceivably, lead to advantage, or scientific advantage in certain tasks. Look for these wildcard advances to occur in areas where quantum computing already has shown a high probability of advantages, such as optimization problems (speaking of probability).

Quantum And AI Inch Closer Together

Arguably, the most powerful technology in the last decade — artificial intelligence — is on an accelerated course to merge with quantum computing. The pace has even surprised experts who expected this powerful technological combination to begin in earnest years — or even decades — from now. We expect scientists to make even more progress in 2025 and, while this progress will unlikely show true advantage during the year, it’s likely that we will begin to see the rough outlines of what this quantum-AI partnership will look like. But quantum’s ability to supercharge AI is only half of the story. In 2025, you should also see new ways that AI can boost quantum computing, for example, through improving quantum error correction scheme. This work is already underway.

Geopolitical Posturing Intensifies

A common theme weaving throughout these predictions is that we suspect the disruptive potential of quantum technology will become more evident throughout 2025, although this potential will likely continue to be more theoretical than experimentally realized this year. Awareness will also be driven by the realization that disruption, in the purest sense of the term; means quantum will have the ability to produce positive change, as well as negative change. As the awareness of power grows, so too will the desire of governments and other large institutions to control it, and to keep enemies from seizing this potential power. The manifestation of this posturing will range from the benign – alliance forming and industry promotion to talent stealing – to the malignant – from espionage to sabotage. 

General Public Begins to Realize That Quantum is More Than Computing

The focus on quantum technologies – particularly following Google Quantum AI’s Willow announcement – was intently leveled on quantum computing. But, in the near future, other forms of quantum technology will have a much bigger practical  impact. Expect more advances and even more news of real world roll-outs of quantum technologies, such as quantum sensing and quantum navigation in 2025.

Quantum Convergence Builds Mass Interest

Quantum technology is more than a technology. It’s a technological and scientific enabler. In other words, quantum science, which is how Nature calculates, will provide insights that will power technologies and processes across industries, fields and disciplines. That means that quantum will soon enter the discussions of business, industry, government and media. In 2025, the rapid convergence of quantum and artificial intelligence, for example, will boost awareness of quantum tech in general, and build interest in its other manifestations, for example quantum computing and quantum sensing. Many will resist this new awareness as hype and it will often produce heightened expectations, but this will also inevitably promote more adoption and produce more innovation.